Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment
We introduce the Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment (EFE) — a real-time scientific initiative designed to test the predictability of volcanic eruptions through a transparent, physics-based framework. The experiment is inspired by the Financial Bubble Experiment, adapting its principles of digital authentication, timestamped archiving, and delayed disclosure to the field of volcanology.
The EFE implements a reproducible protocol in which each forecast is securely timestamped and cryptographically hashed (SHA-256) before being made public. The corresponding forecast documents, containing detailed diagnostics and probabilistic analyses, will be released only after the next eruption (or, if forecasts are proven incorrect, at a later date). This procedure ensures full transparency while avoiding premature interpretation or public controversy surrounding ongoing predictions.
Forecasts are issued monthly, or more frequently if required, using real-time monitoring data from the Ocean Observatories Initiative’s Regional Cabled Array at Axial Seamount. By committing to publish all forecasts—successful or not—the EFE establishes a scientifically rigorous, falsifiable protocol to evaluate the limits of eruption forecasting. The ultimate goal is to transform eruption prediction into a cumulative and testable science founded on open verification, reproducibility, and physical understanding.
The first forecast of the EFE was formally sealed and timestamped on 8 November 2025, marking the start of this long-term experiment. A detailed description of the experimental design, including the authentication and disclosure procedures, is presented in the following arXiv document:
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Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment — arXiv:2511.06128 (v1, submitted on 8 November 2025)
The corresponding SHA-256 hash of the sealed forecast document is publicly available within the arXiv preprint to ensure verifiable integrity. The full forecast results will be released after the next eruption at Axial Seamount, completing the first test of the EFE protocol.
